Media Update: AppLovin Stock, YouTube’s Big-Screen Evolution, Google's Value Proposition
Key Highlights
- TV & Audio: Industry darling AppLovin saw its stock come back to earth after short-sellers released highly critical research against the platform.
- Paid Social: Meta considers breaking out Reels into a standalone app while TikTok faces an uncertain future in the US with 30 days until the new deadline.
- Display & Programmatic: YouTube’s big-screen evolution – a major TV App redesign is on the way.
- Search: Google reframes its value prop amid reports that traditional search engines are losing ground, with 42% of consumers saying they find search engines like Google are becoming less useful.
- Consumer Economy: The Trump Administration has imposed across-the-board tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% additional tariffs on Chinese imports; key economic indicators have reacted very negatively.
TV & Audio
Linear sports viewership tumbled last week as we enter the professional sports doldrums; with the Super Bowl out of the way and March Madness still to come, February 14th marked a rare day without action from the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, or MLS, or a top-25 men’s or women’s college basketball game. News viewership was up, however, as trade war dynamics and Ukrainian president Zelensky’s visit to the White House drew attention.
1. Last December, we shared some thoughts on AppLovin, noting that despite the heavily-covered rise in the company’s stock price, we had underlying concerns regarding the platform’s brand safety and optimization approaches. Other players in the market have expressed their own concerns as well, as two short-sellers released research last week accusing AppLovin of misleading advertising practices. Culper Research and Fuzzy Panda Research each released reports on Feb. 26 detailing their investigations of the platform and announcing short positions; AppLovin’s stock price fell 12% on the news, and as of Wednesday, the stock was down 40% from its mid-February high.
Both reports raised serious allegations against the platform. Culper suggested that “AppLovin’s recent success in mobile gaming stems from the systematic exploitation of app permissions that enable advertisements themselves to force-feed silent, backdoor app installations directly onto users’ phones, with just a single click – an event that is often inadvertent thanks to the Company’s notorious UX gimmicks.” The report further suggested that AppLovin’s recent foray into eCommerce was a “smoke and mirrors game” that AppLovin uses to take credit for Meta-driven conversions. Meanwhile, Fuzzy Panda similarly alleged that the company was piggybacking off of Meta to drive “impossibly high CTRs” while also tracking children’s data.
AppLovin’s CEO responded vigorously in a statement, writing, “It’s disappointing that a few nefarious short-sellers are making false and misleading claims aimed at undermining our success and driving down our stock price for their own financial gain… our partners spend billions annually because we drive real, incremental value in the form of revenue directly attributable to advertising dollars spent – proving that our business model is both legitimate and profitable for partners.” At the same time, several major investors and analysts reiterated their confidence in AppLovin’s future success, with BTIG reiterating its “buy” rating with other positive ratings from Bank of America and William Blair.
So where does this leave advertisers? AppLovin’s incredible growth has been one of the major stories of the advertising industry since Q4, and many brands, large and small, have wanted to get in on the action. Tinuiti remains agnostic with regard to AppLovin’s efficacy – while we are impressed with the company’s financial performance, we have not moved aggressively into the platform due to measurement limitations. Specifically, AppLovin does not allow third-party ad tagging, which limits our ability to use the Bliss Point attribution suite to gauge performance. Instead, advertisers must rely on AppLovin’s own attribution framework, which raises concerns – or in Culper’s words, “allows [AppLovin] to ‘grade their own homework.’” We are actively planning a platform test based on a geo-holdout incrementality framework in order to provide an independent read on AppLovin’s impact. Until then, we encourage advertisers to remain cautious but open-minded. | CNBC
2. “Hollywood’s Biggest Night” may have been closer to “Disney’s Biggest Nightmare” this year. Despite rave reviews for the show itself, Oscars viewership was down 8% year over year, pulling in 18M viewers, the first yearly decline for the show in three years. The bigger concern was on the streaming side, however, as Disney followed in Fox’s Super Bowl footsteps by streaming the show live on Hulu. Unfortunately, the simulcast was marred by glitches and a premature end to the streamer’s coverage, with Hulu terminating the telecast prior to the announcement of Best Picture. Viewers looking to see Anora take home the night’s top prize were instead met with the below:
This isn’t the first time a streamer’s live broadcast has been met with technical difficulties. Many viewers of Tubi’s Super Bowl coverage reported issues with lagging, while Netflix attracted criticism for its buggy broadcast of the Jake Paul – Mike Tyson fight in November.
Hulu offered little on resolutions to this issue, stating, “We experienced technical and live stream issues on Hulu which impacted some Oscars viewers. We apologize for the experience and will make a full replay of the event available as soon as possible.” Despite the low-key response from Disney, the recurring nature of this issue does mark at least some threat to streaming’s takeover of the TV landscape. As linear cord cutting proliferates, many publishers have embraced streaming as an avenue for major live broadcasts, across sports, entertainment, and news. Now, after multiple high profile issues, the pressure is on for streaming platforms to improve their infrastructure to fully facilitate the transition. | The Spun
Paid Social
1. Instagram is reportedly considering launching a standalone Reels app, marking its most aggressive move yet to compete with TikTok. This shift comes as uncertainty looms over TikTok’s future in the U.S., potentially opening the door for Meta to capture short-form video audiences looking for a new home. While Reels already plays a key role in Instagram’s ecosystem, breaking it out into a separate app signals that Meta sees a deeper opportunity in short-form video beyond just being a secondary feature​.
While no official move has been confirmed, if this were to come to fruition, there would be both risks and opportunities for advertisers. On one hand, a separate Reels app could create a more immersive short-form experience, driving higher engagement and opening new inventory for brands looking to capitalize on video-based storytelling. However, history suggests that Meta has had mixed success with standalone apps (think IGTV). If the app fails to gain traction, advertisers may need to continue diversifying their spend across multiple platforms, rather than relying on Meta’s dominance alone​. Either way, this development is worth keeping a close eye on, as it could reshape the short-form video landscape in the coming months. | SocialMediaToday, The Independent
2. Lastly, we would be remiss if we didn’t highlight the unknown future of TikTok. Back in January, following a brief overnight shutdown, President Trump granted a deadline extension to April 5, 2025. With right around 30 days until this new deadline, there has been limited new information about what the future holds. For the time being, TikTok has been added back into Google and Apple app stores, and advertisers are continuing to lean in where they can. Similar to what we discussed back in December and January ahead of the original January 19th deadline, with uncertainty on the horizon, the best approach advertisers can take is a cautious one. Draft up contingency plans in case TikTok does go away or shutdown again, but if TikTok is still working well for your brand, continue to lean in. | The Verge
Display & Programmatic
YouTube is doubling down on the living room and gearing up for a major redesign of its YouTube app on TV screens (note: this isn’t expected to impact YouTube TV viewers). The update, which is anticipated to roll out in the coming months, will give the app a more traditional streaming feel, similar to Netflix.
One expected update with the redesign is the improved accessibility of paid streaming services like Paramount Plus, Max, and Crunchyroll. Currently buried in the Movies and TV tab, these subscription services will now be featured directly on the homepage. This move is designed to boost engagement with these services while also increasing YouTube’s revenue, as the platform receives a portion of the revenue from user subscriptions.
Beyond paid content, YouTube is rolling out several enhancements to improve how users discover and engage with videos, including:
- Seasons for Creator Content: Creators can now organize videos into seasons, making episodic content easier to navigate.
- Auto-Playing Previews: Similar to other major streaming platforms, users will get a quick glimpse of shows before deciding to watch.
- Blended Content Discovery: As creators sit at the core of YouTube, it aims to merge content from Primetime Channels and independent creators so users can browse seamlessly without worrying about where a show originates.
The redesign comes as YouTube continues to be a dominant platform for TV viewing. With over 1 billion hours watched on the biggest screen in the house, TV has overtaken mobile as the primary way people watch in the U.S. This shift is changing how content is consumed and the types of content viewers are leaning into.
- Longer Watch Times: As TV viewers embrace longer content, creators are responding with longer videos tailored for the TV audiences
- Sports Surge: Sports content viewing on TV has surged 30% year over year
- Podcast Shift: Viewership of video podcasts is growing, with over 400 million hours watched monthly on TV
These trends, along with YouTube’s upcoming redesign, are creating new opportunities for advertisers to connect with audiences in new and interesting ways. As streaming video, audio, and podcasting converge, YouTube sits at the center, allowing advertisers to extend their campaigns to the same engaged viewers watching on a different platform while also tapping into new audiences focused on creator-driven content. | The Verge, The Verge, YouTube Blog, Variety
Search
It almost goes without saying that the ways people are searching for and discovering information online continue to rapidly evolve. A splashy new study by The Verge (from December 2024 US-based survey data) unveiled some bold new claims about consumers’ usage, trust, and feelings toward the usefulness of traditional search engines:
- 42% find that search engines like Google are becoming less useful, with only 14% describing sponsored / promoted search results on Google to be “very helpful”
- 66% find the quality of information is deteriorating
- 55% rely on their community for information more than online search platforms
- 52% have turned more to AI chatbots or alternative platforms like TikTok for information
This same Verge study says traditional search engines and social media platforms are “rapidly losing ground as trust and authenticity fades, with more people flocking to AI chatbots, niche communities, and platforms like TikTok. This signals a massive shift and opens the door for disruptive entrants that can offer more authentic, trusted experiences.”
Google is clearly taking note of these trends and reframing its value prop from “Search only” to a more dynamic, cross-channel solution, focused more on the complete consumer journey. The new “Scrolling, shopping, streaming, searching” customer journey framework is about digital media behaviors, and focuses on how AI is changing the way brands connect with customers, as well as how AI-powered ad buying platforms are reshaping the interplay between media planning and media strategies.
For example, in a Feb 2025 Think with Google piece, Elissa Lee mentions how “as the cost of experimentation and testing continues to fall — thanks to AI — the impact of good creative on marketing outcomes will be easier to ascertain. This improved clarity around creative effectiveness will pull the media planning discipline into more strategically important discussions with creative and marketing leaders.”
So while the traditional search experience isn’t completely dissolving any time soon, it’s becoming more important for brands and marketers to understand how their various messages and creative campaigns are influencing consumer trust and behavior. As we mentioned a couple weeks ago, Google’s AI Overview search results are increasingly citing YouTube video content. This merging of traditional search text results with video-supported content is indicative of Google’s response to changing consumer behaviors and expectations of the role of search engines. | The Verge, X, Think with Google
Consumer Economy
1. The big news is – what else? – tariffs. Earlier this week, the Trump Administration announced new tariffs on imports from the United States’ three largest trading partners – China, Canada, and Mexico. Effective 12:01 a.m. ET on March 4th:
- All goods arriving at US ports and originating from Canada or Mexico are subject to 25 percent tariffs; certain Canadian energy resources are subject to a lower 10 percent tariff
- All goods presented for entry at US ports and originating from China, including Hong Kong, are subject to a 10 percent tariff; this is in addition to the 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports that was effective on Feb 4th
Immediately, all three nations announced retaliatory tariffs on US products:
- China announced tariffs on US goods, effective March 10th, including a 15 percent duty on US chicken, wheat, corn and cotton and a 10 percent duty on US sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, dairy and fish products; China also filed another lawsuit against the US at the World Trade Organization, as it did when the first 10 percent tariffs were imposed on Feb 4th
- Canada announced 25 percent tariffs on $30 billion CAD (appx $21 billion) in goods imported from the US, effective immediately; Canada plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on another $CA125 billion on US imports within 21 days if the US tariffs are not withdrawn
- Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated on March 4th that there is no justification for President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico, and announced that her government will respond with both tariff and non-tariff measures, which will be formally unveiled on Sunday, March 9th
Market reactions were swift and unforgiving. The S&P 500 immediately lost about 4% on the announcement:
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, a nowcast of GDP growth, immediately crashed from approximately +2% to -3%:
This all creates a very difficult-to-navigate terrain for businesses, which need to make investment plans over long-ish time horizons. The Federal Reserve maintains an index of economic policy uncertainty, which is now indicating the greatest “regime uncertainty” in over 40 years, surpassing the coronavirus pandemic and even the worst weeks of the financial crisis of 2008:
To the point of uncertainty, much of what you’ve read thus far could have changed by the time you’re reading this. In fact, the Commerce Secretary said the administration could make a tariff deal with Canada and Mexico today. The prediction markets think there is a decent chance of this happening:
And a somewhat higher chance of tariff removal before May:
Finally, the Yale Budget Lab has crunched the numbers on the latest policies, herewith a summary of bottom-line effects on the broader US economy:
- The price level will rise by 1.0 – 1.2%, which translates to a consumer welfare loss of $1,600 – $2,000 per household
- Real GDP growth is 0.6% lower in 2025; in the long-run, the US economy is persistently 0.3 – 0.4% smaller
- The tariffs to date raise $1.4 – $1.5 trillion in tax revenue over 2026 – ‘35 conventionally-scored, and $300-360 billion less if dynamic revenue effects are taken into account; for context, this represents about 1.6% of projected federal outlays over that period
Again, much of the above is likely to change by the time you’re reading this. We will, as ever, strive to keep you maximally informed as the situation evolves. | Holland & Knight, Atlanta Fed, Marginal Revolution, Yale Budget Lab
Update: The White House has granted a one-month tariff exemption for automakers whose imports comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (the successor to NAFTA).
2. Not to pile on, but … US consumer confidence fell last month by the most since August 2021 due to concerns about the broader economy.
This has Americans cutting spending, with more than half of American consumers delaying major life plans due to uncertainty over the economy, according to a new study from Wells Fargo. Have a nice day. | Bloomberg, Bloomberg
You Might Be Interested In
