The New Tariff Landscape: Winners, Losers, and What Comes Next [Live Updates]
Global trade dynamics are shifting rapidly, with new tariffs and retaliatory measures emerging between the United States, China, Canada, and the European Union. This ongoing analysis tracks key developments and their potential impact on advertisers, consumers, and the broader economy—offering strategic insights to help brands navigate a complex and evolving landscape.
The 2025 tariffs could reshape supply chains, influence consumer pricing, and alter market demand—all of which affect how brands position themselves, allocate media budgets, and manage messaging across regions. So, we tapped our agency’s top experts to deliver you exclusive insights on the evolving tariff situation. Read on, or use the table of contents below to skip directly to your topic of interest:
Table of Contents
- Tinuiti’s Recommendations for Advertisers
- Predicted Consumer Impact
- The Latest Updates on the 2025 Tariffs
- Tinuiti Data: Q1 2025 Digital Ad Spend
- Why Does Marketing Spend Matter in an Economic Downturn?
- What’s Happening to Retail Media Ad Spending?
- Ecommerce and the De Minimis Exemption
- Additional Measures Targeting Trade with China
- Helpful Resources
Tinuiti’s Recommendations for Advertisers
The 90-day suspension offers a valuable window for brands to explore alternative sourcing options, renegotiate supplier contracts, or adjust pricing strategies to mitigate financial impacts. Brands should evaluate how the adjusted tariffs impact their supply chains and cost structures, particularly those relying on Chinese imports now subject to higher tariffs.
As we work through the impacts of these tariffs, we understand the circumstances of every partner are different. Below are some of the considerations our team at Tinuiti can help navigate.
- Price Increases & Cost Pass-Through: Brands that are exposed to the effects of these tariffs may need to consider raising prices. Due to the immediate impact on demand and marketing performance, Tinuiti can help brands plan for the effects of higher prices.
- Efficiency Targets: If profitability is impacted by the implementation of tariffs, reevaluate program goals such as ROAS and CPA to ensure efficient growth.
- Budget Reallocation to Cost-Effective Channels: Consider reallocating budget to more cost-effective and performance-based channels and platforms. Our teams can help identify which channels and platforms brands should consider pulling back on first.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Focus marketing efforts and promotions on in-stock products if shortages occur. Given our recent experience with pandemic-induced shortages in 2020 and 2021, Tinuiti teams are well-versed in how best to navigate these situations.
- Importance of Accurate Data: Performance-based advertising allows for precise tracking of metrics like clicks, conversions, and sales, making it easier to prove the effectiveness of campaigns. In the current environment, any blind spots put a brand at risk of misusing or misdirecting precious marketing dollars.
Predicted Consumer Impact:
Yale Budget Lab has crunched the numbers, finding that under the current configuration of trade tariffs:
- Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 27%, the highest since 1903
- The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 2.9% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $4,700 in 2024 dollars
- Apparel prices rise by 64% in the short run
- US real GDP growth is 1.1% lower; in the long-run, the US economy is persistently -0.6% smaller
- The unemployment rate rises 0.6 percentage point by the end of 2025
The Latest Updates on the 2025 Tariffs
April 18, 2025 – Updated Tinuiti POV
As we predicted in March, the anticipated cooling ad market due to tariff uncertainty is now a reality as the U.S. re-imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, impacting cost structures and consumer behavior. Brands in electronics, auto, and CPG are acknowledging economic hardship in their ads, echoing pandemic-era messaging. Tinuiti data revealed that Temu, a significant Super Bowl advertiser in 2024, has drastically cut ad spending following the tariffs and de minimis policy changes, with their U.S. Google Shopping ad impressions falling from 19% to 0% in a short period.
Social media, linear TV & gaming media are poised to absorb the greatest impact from diminished budgets. A new eMarketer analysis shows that linear TV’s long lead times and weaker attribution Social media, linear TV & gaming media are poised to absorb the greatest impact from diminished budgets. Performance-oriented digital channels might be more resilient due to measurable results, though all platforms could see pressure as brands prioritize loyalty programs and organic strategies. Ad buyers are revising 2025 forecasts, focusing on lower-funnel tactics for quicker results.
Despite cooling inflation and modest consumer sentiment, retaliatory tariffs and supply chain issues create a cautious marketing environment. Unlike gradual monetary policy changes, trade actions have swift, significant effects. Agility is crucial for performance marketers in this era of fluid budgets and rapid re-forecasting. Brands aligning with finance, using flexible buying, and focusing on conversion will fare best short-term. Those absorbing tariff costs and maintaining brand awareness may gain a strong long-term advantage.
April 15, 2025
Temu’s share of impressions in Google auctions has fallen to 0% in the past week. As of March 31, 19% of U.S. Google Shopping ad impressions were bought by Temu. By April 12, that figure had dropped to zero, a strong signal that Temu is no longer aggressively bidding for visibility in the space. (Source: Tinuiti Data; Reuters; Adweek; CNBC)
April 11, 2025
China responded to President Trump’s tariffs on Friday, raising its own tariffs on American goods to 125 percent, as the world’s two biggest economies extended a fast-moving tit-for-tat that has seen the cost of trade soar and fueled concerns over a global recession. (Source: NYT)
April 9, 2025 – Updated Tinuiti POV
Tariffs Imposed by The United States
President Trump on Wednesday (4/9) announced – by executive fiat, with no involvement from Congress – a 90-day pause on the “reciprocal” tariffs he’d announced on April 2nd, applying to all trading partners apart from China. That means the currently-in-force tariff schedule (and this can change at any moment) is:
- Canada and Mexico – USMCA-compliant goods are not subject to import taxes. Non-compliant goods are subject to a 25% tax, while Canadian energy is subject to a 10% tax.
- China – Chinese imports are now subject to a 145% import tax.
- All other countries – 10% baseline import tax.
Tariffs Imposed by Other Countries on American Goods
Foreign nations have not sat by impassively while the United States has threatened tariffs at a level not seen in a century (though economists would argue they should!). Retaliatory tariffs have been imposed along the following lines:
- China – American goods exported to China face a tax of 125%, effective Saturday.
- European Union – The EU approved a package of product-specific duties, though those have now been paused in response to the American pause.
- Canada – USMCA non-compliant automobiles made in America now face a 25% tax when they cross the Canadian border.
So where we’ve netted out is with higher taxes on American importers, higher taxes on the customers of American exporters, and a potential end to one of the most significant bilateral trading relationships in human history.
Market Reaction: The market unambiguously dislikes tariffs. Immediately following the President’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2nd, equity markets plunged; when he announced a pause of the reciprocal tariffs on the 9th, equities soared. Markets sank again on the 10th, possibly because expectations of further pullbacks from the universal tariffs were not forthcoming.
April 5, 2025
Trump’s 10% minimum tariff on nearly all countries and territories takes effect.
April 4, 2025
China announces plans to impose a 34 percent tariff on imports of all U.S. products beginning April 10, matching Trump’s new “reciprocal” tariff on Chinese goods, as part of a flurry of retaliatory measures.
April 3, 2025
Trump’s previously-announced auto tariffs begin. Prime Minister Mark Carney says that Canada will match the 25 percent levies with a tariff on vehicles imported from the U.S.
April 2, 2025
The White House has officially announced the details of new, comprehensive import tariffs.
- A new 10% baseline tariff on all imports, effective April 5th (that’s three days for businesses and consumers to make adjustments)
- 25% tariffs on all imported automotive vehicles, effective midnight Thursday
- Designated foreign nations will have “discounted reciprocal tariffs” applied to their exports to the US, these higher rates being for nations the White House considers bad actors on trade; notable duties will be 34% on Chinese goods, 24% on Japanese goods, and 20% on E.U. goods, effective April 9th
March 12, 2025:
- Trump’s new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports go into effect. Both metals are now taxed at 25 percent across the board — with Trump’s order to remove steel exemptions and raise aluminum’s levy from his previously-imposed 2018 import taxes.
- The European Union takes retaliatory trade action promising new duties on U.S. industrial and farm products. The measures will cover goods from the United States worth some 26 billion euros ($28 billion), and not just steel and aluminum products, but also textiles, home appliances and agricultural goods.
- Motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter and jeans will be hit, as they were during Trump’s first term. The 27-member bloc later says it will delay this retaliatory action until mid-April.
- Canada, meanwhile, announces plans to impose retaliatory tariffs worth Canadian $29.8 billion ($20.7 billion) on U.S. imports, set to go into effect March 13.
March 10, 2025
China’s retaliatory 15 percent tariffs on key American farm products — including chicken, pork, soybeans and beef — take effect. Goods already in transit are set to be exempt through April 12, per China’s Commerce Ministry previous announcement.
March 6, 2025
In a wider extension, Trump postpones 25 percent tariffs on many imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. But he still plans to impose “reciprocal” tariffs starting on April 2.
March 5, 2025
Trump grants a one-month exemption on his new tariffs impacting goods from Mexico and Canada for U.S. automakers. The pause arrives after the president spoke with leaders of the “Big 3” automakers — Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.
March 4, 2025
President Trump announced he will exempt most Mexican and Canadian goods from the tariffs for another month so long as they are compliant with the 2020 USMCA trade agreement. The USMCA allowed tariff-free imports for products entirely made in or substantially transformed in North America.
Canada responded to the March 4th tariffs by imposing its own 25% tariff on $20.8 billion in US imports across a list of over 1,200 products including apparel, appliances, beer, coffee, cosmetics, footwear, orange juice, and peanut butter. Canada is currently considering a second tranche of retaliatory tariffs.
China has also retaliated against the US, announcing 10-15% increases in tariffs across US agricultural and food products.
February 13, 2025
Trump announces a plan for “reciprocal” tariffs — promising to increase U.S. tariffs to match the tax rates that other countries charge on imports “for purposes of fairness.” Economists warn that the reciprocal tariffs, set to overturn decades of trade policy, could create chaos for global businesses. Beyond China, Canada and Mexico, he later indicates that additional countries, such as India and European nations, won’t be spared from higher tariffs.
February 10, 2025
Trump announces plans to hike steel and aluminum tariffs starting March 12. He removes the exemptions from his 2018 tariffs on steel, meaning that all steel imports will be taxed at a minimum of 25 percent, and also raises his 2018 aluminum tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent.
February 4, 2025
Trump’s new 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports to the U.S. still go into effect. China retaliates the same day by announcing a flurry of countermeasures, including sweeping new duties on a variety of American goods and an anti-monopoly investigation into Google. China’s 15 percent tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas products, and a 10 percent levy on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars imported from the U.S., take effect Feb. 10.
February 3, 2025
Trump agrees to a 30-day pause on his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, as both trading partners take steps to appease Trump’s concerns about border security and drug trafficking.
February 1, 2025
Trump signs an executive order to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China — 10 percent on all imports from China and 25 percent on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb. 4. Trump invoked this power by declaring a national emergency — ostensibly over undocumented immigration and drug trafficking. The action prompts swift outrage from all three countries, with promises of retaliatory measures.
Tinuiti Data: Q1 2025 Digital Ad Spend
In Line With Expectations for Major Platforms as US Tariff Impact Looms
Across Google, Meta, and Amazon, ad spend trends in the first quarter largely tracked in line with expectations prior to the quarter given year-ago comparisons. While Meta platforms bucked the Q4 deceleration trend observed across most other platforms, overall growth on the social giant slowed in Q1 as it ran into tougher year-ago comparisons, particularly on Instagram. More details will be shared in the upcoming Q1 2025 Digital Ad Spend Benchmark Report.
Why does marketing spend matter in an economic downturn?
Reduced Noise Creates Opportunity
- McGraw-Hill Study (1986): Companies that kept advertising during the 1981–1982 recession saw 256% more sales growth five years later than those that cut spend.
- Millward Brown (2009): Brands increasing marketing spend during the 2008 crisis saw better ROI and stronger brand equity.
- With competitors retreating and media costs often dropping, maintaining visibility becomes more efficient — and more valuable.
Marketing Signals Confidence and Stability
- Harvard Business Review (2010): Companies that continued investing in marketing, R&D, and CX during recessions outperformed peers in profit and sales by 10%+.
- In volatile times, visibility signals leadership. Silence may suggest instability.
Trust is Built in Uncertainty
- Edelman Trust Barometer (2023): 71% of consumers cite brand trust as a top purchasing factor.
- Consistent communication in tough times builds long-term customer loyalty.
Marketing Must Adapt, Not Disappear
- Brands like Nike, Amazon, and Airbnb successfully adapted messaging during COVID — staying active while shifting tone and focus.
- Les Binet and Peter Field recommend a 60% brand / 40% activation mix even during a downturn.
For Brand & Performance Media
According to The Advertising Research Foundation: Seven empirical studies analyzed the effect of firm advertising on sales or market share. A review of these empirical studies suggest that there is strong and consistent evidence that cutting back on advertising during a recession can hurt sales during and after the recession, without generating any substantial increase in profits. Such cutbacks can result in a loss in capitalization. On the other hand, not cutting back on advertising during a recession could increase sales during and after the recession. Moreover, firms that increased advertising during a recession experienced higher sales, market share, or earnings during or after the recession. Most of the studies consistently showed that the strategy adopted for advertising during a recession had effects that persisted for several years after the recession.
What’s happening to retail media ad spending?
- The tariffs are inevitably introducing economic instability, which naturally prompts advertisers to reassess their spending strategies and potentially reduce their budgets in light of a possible economic slowdown.
- Retail media faces headwinds due to margin compression, particularly those platforms heavily reliant on suppliers from affected countries.
- In light of this, it’s more critical than ever to ensure strategy and tactics are streamlined for efficiency, and that every marketing dollar is making the most impact. We’re working closely with client teams to ensure we’re minimizing waste, channeling efforts toward growth, and doubling down on the real-time optimizations that ensure clients remain best positioned to continue seeing positive outcomes and achieve their respective business goals.
Ecommerce and the de minimis Exemption
Certain ecommerce merchants have been particularly alarmed by the prospect of new duties on Chinese goods because of their reliance on the so-called de minimis exemption. The De Minimis Tax Exemption is a law passed by Congress that allows shipments bound for the US and valued under $800 to enter the country free of duty and taxes. The Trump Administration’s executive order will end the de minimis exemption.
This matters because the de minimis exemption has been crucial to the business model of hugely important China-based ecommerce players like Shein and Temu. Both platforms ship customer orders directly from China under the de minimis provision, allowing them to keep prices extremely low (indeed, both are famous for their ultra-low prices). The new rules would end the exemption and raise the costs of getting these goods to the United States, eroding the price advantage of Shein and Temu, which will likely end up in higher prices faced by American consumers.
Temu, which infamously bought five Super Bowl spots back in 2024, has massively curtailed ad spend. Adweek (in partnership with the Research & Analysis team) notes that while 19% of U.S. Google Shopping ad impressions were bought by Temu as recently as March 31, this has since declined to 0% as of April 12th.
Additional Measures Targeting Trade with China
Chinese Tariffs: Implications & Considerations
American businesses and consumers are now dealing with 10% universal tariffs, 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, and a huge amount of uncertainty over what tariff rates might be tomorrow.
That is not the only concern facing those who wish to conduct commerce across political borders. The US Trade Representative announced back in February, and is now revising, plans to impose steep port fees on Chinese-built vessels. The original plan was to impose fees between $500k – $1.5m for each port call, though the revisions are aimed at lessening the impact on American consumers.
Impact of Higher Port Fees on Chinese-built vessels
One impact of higher port fees would be for shippers to only dock at the largest ports, skipping all the second- and third-tier ports. This would obviously not be helpful to the industries and jobs built up around those ports.
A second impact, related to the first, would be greater congestion and longer product landing times at the largest ports (Los Angeles, Houston, New York), similar to what we saw during the pandemic.
A third impact would be, of course, higher final prices to consumers.
There is not, unfortunately, ready American capacity that can take over this kind of cargo shipping.
This sobering reality is downstream of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, better known as the Jones Act, which for over a century now has restricted water transportation of cargo between U.S. ports to ships that are U.S.-owned, U.S.-crewed, U.S.-registered, and U.S.-built. The result has been a domestic shipbuilding industry that has withered almost to nothing; there might be a lesson here for advocates of protective policies in the name of reinvigorating targeted industries.
Helpful Resources
- White House Fact Sheet on new trade duties
- Yale Budget Lab estimates of economic and fiscal effects
- Peterson Institute for International Economics on the future of the USMCA
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